Statistical significance in the context of Wald test


Statistical significance in the context of Wald test

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⭐ Core Definition: Statistical significance

In statistical hypothesis testing, a result has statistical significance when a result at least as "extreme" would be very infrequent if the null hypothesis were true. More precisely, a study's defined significance level, denoted by , is the probability of the study rejecting the null hypothesis, given that the null hypothesis is true; and the p-value of a result, , is the probability of obtaining a result at least as extreme, given that the null hypothesis is true. The result is said to be statistically significant, by the standards of the study, when . The significance level for a study is chosen before data collection, and is typically set to 5% or much lower—depending on the field of study.

In any experiment or observation that involves drawing a sample from a population, there is always the possibility that an observed effect would have occurred due to sampling error alone. But if the p-value of an observed effect is less than (or equal to) the significance level, an investigator may conclude that the effect reflects the characteristics of the whole population, thereby rejecting the null hypothesis.

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👉 Statistical significance in the context of Wald test

In statistics, the Wald test (named after Abraham Wald) assesses constraints on statistical parameters based on the weighted distance between the unrestricted estimate and its hypothesized value under the null hypothesis, where the weight is the precision of the estimate. Intuitively, the larger this weighted distance, the less likely it is that the constraint is true. While the finite sample distributions of Wald tests are generally unknown, it has an asymptotic χ-distribution under the null hypothesis, a fact that can be used to determine statistical significance.

Together with the Lagrange multiplier test and the likelihood-ratio test, the Wald test is one of three classical approaches to hypothesis testing. An advantage of the Wald test over the other two is that it only requires the estimation of the unrestricted model, which lowers the computational burden as compared to the likelihood-ratio test. However, a major disadvantage is that (in finite samples) it is not invariant to changes in the representation of the null hypothesis; in other words, algebraically equivalent expressions of non-linear parameter restriction can lead to different values of the test statistic. That is because the Wald statistic is derived from a Taylor expansion, and different ways of writing equivalent nonlinear expressions lead to nontrivial differences in the corresponding Taylor coefficients. Another aberration, known as the Hauck–Donner effect, can occur in binomial models when the estimated (unconstrained) parameter is close to the boundary of the parameter space—for instance a fitted probability being extremely close to zero or one—which results in the Wald test no longer monotonically increasing in the distance between the unconstrained and constrained parameter.

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Statistical significance in the context of Multiverse

The multiverse is the hypothetical set of all universes. Together, these universes are presumed to comprise everything that exists: the entirety of space, time, matter, energy, information, and the physical laws and constants that describe them. The different universes within the multiverse are called "parallel universes", "flat universes", "other universes", "alternate universes", "multiple universes", "plane universes", "parent and child universes", "many universes", or "many worlds". One common assumption is that the multiverse is a "patchwork quilt of separate universes all bound by the same laws of physics."

The concept of multiple universes, or a multiverse, has been discussed throughout history. It has evolved and has been debated in various fields, including cosmology, physics, and philosophy. Some physicists have argued that the multiverse is a philosophical notion rather than a scientific hypothesis, as it cannot be empirically falsified. In recent years, there have been proponents and skeptics of multiverse theories within the physics community. Although some scientists have analyzed data in search of evidence for other universes, no statistically significant evidence has been found. Critics argue that the multiverse concept lacks testability and falsifiability, which are essential for scientific inquiry, and that it raises unresolved metaphysical issues.

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Statistical significance in the context of Standard deviation

In statistics, the standard deviation is a measure of the amount of variation of the values of a variable about its mean. A low standard deviation indicates that the values tend to be close to the mean (also called the expected value) of the set, while a high standard deviation indicates that the values are spread out over a wider range. The standard deviation is commonly used in the determination of what constitutes an outlier and what does not. Standard deviation may be abbreviated SD or std dev, and is most commonly represented in mathematical texts and equations by the lowercase Greek letter σ (sigma), for the population standard deviation, or the Latin letter s, for the sample standard deviation.

The standard deviation of a random variable, sample, statistical population, data set, or probability distribution is the square root of its variance. (For a finite population, variance is the average of the squared deviations from the mean.) A useful property of the standard deviation is that, unlike the variance, it is expressed in the same unit as the data. Standard deviation can also be used to calculate standard error for a finite sample, and to determine statistical significance.

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Statistical significance in the context of Publication bias

In published academic research, publication bias occurs when the outcome of an experiment or research study biases the decision to publish or otherwise distribute it. Publishing only results that show a significant finding disturbs the balance of findings in favor of positive results. The study of publication bias is an important topic in metascience.

Despite similar quality of execution and design, papers with statistically significant results are three times more likely to be published than those with null results. This unduly motivates researchers to manipulate their practices to ensure statistically significant results, such as by data dredging.

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Statistical significance in the context of T-test

Student's t-test is a statistical test used to test whether the difference between the response of two groups is statistically significant or not. It is any statistical hypothesis test in which the test statistic follows a Student's t-distribution under the null hypothesis. It is most commonly applied when the test statistic would follow a normal distribution if the value of a scaling term in the test statistic were known (typically, the scaling term is unknown and is therefore a nuisance parameter). When the scaling term is estimated based on the data, the test statistic—under certain conditions—follows a Student's t distribution. The t-test's most common application is to test whether the means of two populations are significantly different. In many cases, a Z-test will yield very similar results to a t-test because the latter converges to the former as the size of the dataset increases.

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Statistical significance in the context of Sample standard deviation

In statistics, the standard deviation is a measure of the amount of variation of the values of a variable about its mean. A low standard deviation indicates that the values tend to be close to the mean (also called the expected value) of the set, while a high standard deviation indicates that the values are spread out over a wider range. Standard deviation may be abbreviated SD or std dev, and is most commonly represented in mathematical texts and equations by the lowercase Greek letter σ (sigma), for the population standard deviation, or the Latin letter s, for the sample standard deviation.

The standard deviation of a random variable, sample, statistical population, data set, or probability distribution is the square root of its variance. (For a finite population, variance is the average of the squared deviations from the mean.) A useful property of the standard deviation is that, unlike the variance, it is expressed in the same unit as the data. Standard deviation can also be used to calculate standard error for a finite sample, and to determine statistical significance.

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Statistical significance in the context of Binomial distribution

In probability theory and statistics, the binomial distribution with parameters n and p is the discrete probability distribution of the number of successes in a sequence of n independent experiments, each asking a yes–no question, and each with its own Boolean-valued outcome: success (with probability p) or failure (with probability q = 1 − p). A single success/failure experiment is also called a Bernoulli trial or Bernoulli experiment, and a sequence of outcomes is called a Bernoulli process. For a single trial, that is, when n = 1, the binomial distribution is a Bernoulli distribution. The binomial distribution is the basis for the binomial test of statistical significance.

The binomial distribution is frequently used to model the number of successes in a sample of size n drawn with replacement from a population of size N. If the sampling is carried out without replacement, the draws are not independent and so the resulting distribution is a hypergeometric distribution, not a binomial one. However, for N much larger than n, the binomial distribution remains a good approximation, and is widely used.

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Statistical significance in the context of Z(4430)

Z(4430) is a mesonic resonance discovered by the Belle experiment. It has a mass of 4430 MeV/c. The resonant nature of the peak has been confirmed by the LHCb experiment with a significance of at least 13.9 σ. The particle is charged and is thought to have a quark content of ccdu, making it a tetraquark candidate. It has the spin-parity quantum numbers J = 1.

The particle joins the X(3872), Zc(3900) and Y(4140) as exotic hadron candidates observed by multiple experiments, although it is the first to be confirmed as a resonance.

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Statistical significance in the context of Granger causality

The Granger causality test is a statistical hypothesis test for determining whether one time series is useful in forecasting another, first proposed in 1969. Ordinarily, regressions reflect "mere" correlations, but Clive Granger argued that causality in economics could be tested for by measuring the ability to predict the future values of a time series using prior values of another time series. Since the question of "true causality" is deeply philosophical, and because of the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy of assuming that one thing preceding another can be used as a proof of causation, econometricians assert that the Granger test finds only "predictive causality". Using the term "causality" alone is a misnomer, as Granger-causality is better described as "precedence", or, as Granger himself later claimed in 1977, "temporally related". Rather than testing whether X causes Y, the Granger causality tests whether X forecasts Y.

A time series X is said to Granger-cause Y if it can be shown, usually through a series of t-tests and F-tests on lagged values of X (and with lagged values of Y also included), that those X values provide statistically significant information about future values of Y.

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