Statistical hypothesis testing in the context of Granger causality

In linguistics and natural language processing, a corpus (pl.: corpora) or text corpus is a dataset, consisting of natively digital and older, digitalized, language resources, either annotated or unannotated.

Annotated, they have been used in corpus linguistics for statistical hypothesis testing, checking occurrences or validating linguistic rules within a specific language territory.

A statistical model is a mathematical model that embodies a set of statistical assumptions concerning the generation of sample data (and similar data from a larger population). A statistical model represents, often in considerably idealized form, the data-generating process. When referring specifically to probabilities, the corresponding term is probabilistic model. All statistical hypothesis tests and all statistical estimators are derived via statistical models. More generally, statistical models are part of the foundation of statistical inference. A statistical model is usually specified as a mathematical relationship between one or more random variables and other non-random variables. As such, a statistical model is "a formal representation of a theory" (Herman Adèr quoting Kenneth Bollen).

Data analysis is the process of inspecting, cleansing, transforming, and modeling data with the goal of discovering useful information, informing conclusions, and supporting decision-making. Data analysis has multiple facets and approaches, encompassing diverse techniques under a variety of names, and is used in different business, science, and social science domains. In today's business world, data analysis plays a role in making decisions more scientific and helping businesses operate more effectively.

Data mining is a particular data analysis technique that focuses on statistical modeling and knowledge discovery for predictive rather than purely descriptive purposes, while business intelligence covers data analysis that relies heavily on aggregation, focusing mainly on business information. In statistical applications, data analysis can be divided into descriptive statistics, exploratory data analysis (EDA), and confirmatory data analysis (CDA). EDA focuses on discovering new features in the data while CDA focuses on confirming or falsifying existing hypotheses. Predictive analytics focuses on the application of statistical models for predictive forecasting or classification, while text analytics applies statistical, linguistic, and structural techniques to extract and classify information from textual sources, a variety of unstructured data. All of the above are varieties of data analysis.

In statistical hypothesis testing, a result has statistical significance when a result at least as "extreme" would be very infrequent if the null hypothesis were true. More precisely, a study's defined significance level, denoted by ${\displaystyle \alpha }$, is the probability of the study rejecting the null hypothesis, given that the null hypothesis is true; and the p-value of a result, ${\displaystyle p}$, is the probability of obtaining a result at least as extreme, given that the null hypothesis is true. The result is said to be statistically significant, by the standards of the study, when ${\displaystyle p\leq \alpha }$. The significance level for a study is chosen before data collection, and is typically set to 5% or much lower—depending on the field of study.

In any experiment or observation that involves drawing a sample from a population, there is always the possibility that an observed effect would have occurred due to sampling error alone. But if the p-value of an observed effect is less than (or equal to) the significance level, an investigator may conclude that the effect reflects the characteristics of the whole population, thereby rejecting the null hypothesis.

The phrase "correlation does not imply causation" refers to the inability to legitimately deduce a cause-and-effect relationship between two events or variables solely on the basis of an observed association or correlation between them. The idea that "correlation implies causation" is an example of a questionable-cause logical fallacy, in which two events occurring together are taken to have established a cause-and-effect relationship. This fallacy is also known by the Latin phrase cum hoc ergo propter hoc ("with this, therefore because of this"). This differs from the fallacy known as post hoc ergo propter hoc ("after this, therefore because of this"), in which an event following another is seen as a necessary consequence of the former event, and from conflation, the errant merging of two events, ideas, databases, etc., into one.

As with any logical fallacy, identifying that the reasoning behind an argument is flawed does not necessarily imply that the resulting conclusion is false. Statistical methods have been proposed that use correlation as the basis for hypothesis tests for causality, including the Granger causality test and convergent cross mapping. The Bradford Hill criteria, also known as Hill's criteria for causation, are a group of nine principles that can be useful in considering the epidemiologic evidence of a causal relationship. Ultimately, assumptions are always required to draw causal conclusions, and modern causal inference frameworks focus on interrogating the strength of these assumptions.

Student's t-test is a statistical test used to test whether the difference between the response of two groups is statistically significant or not. It is any statistical hypothesis test in which the test statistic follows a Student's t-distribution under the null hypothesis. It is most commonly applied when the test statistic would follow a normal distribution if the value of a scaling term in the test statistic were known (typically, the scaling term is unknown and is therefore a nuisance parameter). When the scaling term is estimated based on the data, the test statistic—under certain conditions—follows a Student's t distribution. The t-test's most common application is to test whether the means of two populations are significantly different. In many cases, a Z-test will yield very similar results to a t-test because the latter converges to the former as the size of the dataset increases.

A test method is a method for a test in science or engineering, such as a physical test, chemical test, or statistical test. It is a specified procedure that produces a test result. To ensure accurate and relevant results, a test method should be "explicit, unambiguous, and experimentally feasible.", as well as effective and reproducible.

A test is an observation or experiment that determines one or more characteristics of a given sample, product, process, or service, with the purpose of comparing the test result to expected or desired results. The results can be qualitative (yes/no), quantitative (a measured value), or categorical and can be derived from personal observation or the output of a precision measuring instrument.

Test statistic is a quantity derived from the sample for statistical hypothesis testing. A hypothesis test is typically specified in terms of a test statistic, considered as a numerical summary of a data-set that reduces the data to one value that can be used to perform the hypothesis test. In general, a test statistic is selected or defined in such a way as to quantify, within observed data, behaviours that would distinguish the null from the alternative hypothesis, where such an alternative is prescribed, or that would characterize the null hypothesis if there is no explicitly stated alternative hypothesis.

An important property of a test statistic is that its sampling distribution under the null hypothesis must be calculable, either exactly or approximately, which allows p-values to be calculated. A test statistic shares some of the same qualities of a descriptive statistic, and many statistics can be used as both test statistics and descriptive statistics. However, a test statistic is specifically intended for use in statistical testing, whereas the main quality of a descriptive statistic is that it is easily interpretable. Some informative descriptive statistics, such as the sample range, do not make good test statistics since it is difficult to determine their sampling distribution.

In null-hypothesis significance testing, the p-value is the probability of obtaining test results at least as extreme as the result actually observed, under the assumption that the null hypothesis is correct. A very small p-value means that such an extreme observed outcome would be very unlikely under the null hypothesis. Even though reporting p-values of statistical tests is common practice in academic publications of many quantitative fields, misinterpretation and misuse of p-values is widespread and has been a major topic in mathematics and metascience.

In 2016, the American Statistical Association (ASA) made a formal statement that "p-values do not measure the probability that the studied hypothesis is true, or the probability that the data were produced by random chance alone" and that "a p-value, or statistical significance, does not measure the size of an effect or the importance of a result" or "evidence regarding a model or hypothesis". That said, a 2019 task force by ASA has issued a statement on statistical significance and replicability, concluding with: "p-values and significance tests, when properly applied and interpreted, increase the rigor of the conclusions drawn from data".

Statistical tests are used to test the fit between a hypothesis and the data. Choosing the right statistical test is not a trivial task. The choice of the test depends on many properties of the research question. The vast majority of studies can be addressed by 30 of the 100 or so statistical tests in use.

Diagram of a binary classifier separating a set of samples into positive and negative values. The elements in the green area on the right are those classified as positive matches for the tested condition, while those on the pink area on the left were classified as negative matches.

The red crosses () within the green area () represent false positives (negative samples that were classified as positive).

Conversely, the green circles () within the pink area () represent false negatives (positive samples that were classified as negative).

The Wald–Wolfowitz runs test (or simply runs test), named after statisticians Abraham Wald and Jacob Wolfowitz is a non-parametric statistical test that checks a randomness hypothesis for a two-valued data sequence. More precisely, it can be used to test the hypothesis that the elements of the sequence are mutually independent.

In statistics, an effect size is a value measuring the strength of the relationship between two variables in a population, or a sample-based estimate of that quantity. It can refer to the value of a statistic calculated from a sample of data, the value of one parameter for a hypothetical population, or the equation that operationalizes how statistics or parameters lead to the effect size value. Examples of effect sizes include the correlation between two variables, the regression coefficient in a regression, the mean difference, and the risk of a particular event (such as a heart attack). Effect sizes are a complementary tool for statistical hypothesis testing, and play an important role in statistical power analyses to assess the sample size required for new experiments. Effect size calculations are fundamental to meta-analysis, which aims to provide the combined effect size based on data from multiple studies. The group of data-analysis methods concerning effect sizes is referred to as estimation statistics.

Effect size is an essential component in the evaluation of the strength of a statistical claim, and it is the first item (magnitude) in the MAGIC criteria. The standard deviation of the effect size is of critical importance, as it indicates how much uncertainty is included in the observed measurement. A standard deviation that is too large will make the measurement nearly meaningless. In meta-analysis, which aims to summarize multiple effect sizes into a single estimate, the uncertainty in studies' effect sizes is used to weight the contribution of each study, so larger studies are considered more important than smaller ones. The uncertainty in the effect size is calculated differently for each type of effect size, but generally only requires knowing the study's sample size (N), or the number of observations (n) in each group.

Frequentist inference is a type of statistical inference based in frequentist probability, which treats "probability" in equivalent terms to "frequency" and draws conclusions from sample-data by means of emphasizing the frequency or proportion of findings in the data. Frequentist inference underlies frequentist statistics, in which the well-established methodologies of statistical hypothesis testing and confidence intervals are founded.

In science, a null result is a result without the expected content: that is, the proposed result is absent. It is an experimental outcome which does not show an otherwise expected effect. This does not imply a result of zero or nothing, simply a result that does not support the hypothesis.

In statistical hypothesis testing, a null result occurs when an experimental result is not significantly different from what is to be expected under the null hypothesis; its probability (under the null hypothesis) does not exceed the significance level, i.e., the threshold set prior to testing for rejection of the null hypothesis. The significance level varies, but common choices include 0.10, 0.05, and 0.01. However, a non-significant result does not necessarily mean that an effect is absent.