Confidence intervals in the context of Unbiased estimation of standard deviation


Confidence intervals in the context of Unbiased estimation of standard deviation

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⭐ Core Definition: Confidence intervals

In statistics, a confidence interval (CI) is a range of values used to estimate an unknown statistical parameter, such as a population mean. Rather than reporting a single point estimate (e.g. "the average screen time is 3 hours per day"), a confidence interval provides a range, such as 2 to 4 hours, along with a specified confidence level, typically 95%.

A 95% confidence level does not imply a 95% probability that the true parameter lies within a particular calculated interval. The confidence level instead reflects the long-run reliability of the method used to generate the interval. In other words, if the same sampling procedure were repeated 100 times from the same population, approximately 95 of the resulting intervals would be expected to contain the true population mean.

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👉 Confidence intervals in the context of Unbiased estimation of standard deviation

In statistics and in particular statistical theory, unbiased estimation of a standard deviation is the calculation from a statistical sample of an estimated value of the standard deviation (a measure of statistical dispersion) of a population of values, in such a way that the expected value of the calculation equals the true value. Except in some important situations, outlined later, the task has little relevance to applications of statistics since its need is avoided by standard procedures, such as the use of significance tests and confidence intervals, or by using Bayesian analysis.

However, for statistical theory, it provides an exemplar problem in the context of estimation theory which is both simple to state and for which results cannot be obtained in closed form. It also provides an example where imposing the requirement for unbiased estimation might be seen as just adding inconvenience, with no real benefit.

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Confidence intervals in the context of Public opinion polling

An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a survey or a poll, is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals. A person who conducts polls is referred to as a pollster.

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Confidence intervals in the context of Randomised decision rule

In statistical decision theory, a randomised decision rule or mixed decision rule is a decision rule that associates probabilities with deterministic decision rules. In finite decision problems, randomised decision rules define a risk set which is the convex hull of the risk points of the nonrandomised decision rules.

As nonrandomised alternatives always exist to randomised Bayes rules, randomisation is not needed in Bayesian statistics, although frequentist statistical theory sometimes requires the use of randomised rules to satisfy optimality conditions such as minimax, most notably when deriving confidence intervals and hypothesis tests about discrete probability distributions.

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