Stationary process in the context of Mean-reverting process


Stationary process in the context of Mean-reverting process

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⭐ Core Definition: Stationary process

In mathematics and statistics, a stationary process (also called a strict/strictly stationary process or strong/strongly stationary process) is a stochastic process whose statistical properties, such as mean and variance, do not change over time. More formally, the joint probability distribution of the process remains the same when shifted in time. This implies that the process is statistically consistent across different time periods. Because many statistical procedures in time series analysis assume stationarity, non-stationary data are frequently transformed to achieve stationarity before analysis.

A common cause of non-stationarity is a trend in the mean, which can be due to either a unit root or a deterministic trend. In the case of a unit root, stochastic shocks have permanent effects, and the process is not mean-reverting. With a deterministic trend, the process is called trend-stationary, and shocks have only transitory effects, with the variable tending towards a deterministically evolving mean. A trend-stationary process is not strictly stationary but can be made stationary by removing the trend. Similarly, processes with unit roots can be made stationary through differencing.

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👉 Stationary process in the context of Mean-reverting process

In mathematics, the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process is a stochastic process with applications in financial mathematics and the physical sciences. Its original application in physics was as a model for the velocity of a massive Brownian particle under the influence of friction. It is named after Leonard Ornstein and George Eugene Uhlenbeck.

The Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process is a stationary Gauss–Markov process, which means that it is a Gaussian process, a Markov process, and is temporally homogeneous. In fact, it is the only nontrivial process that satisfies these three conditions, up to allowing linear transformations of the space and time variables. Over time, the process tends to drift towards its mean function: such a process is called mean-reverting.

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Stationary process in the context of Communication source

A source or sender is one of the basic concepts of communication and information processing. Sources are objects which encode message data and transmit the information, via a channel, to one or more observers (or receivers).

In the strictest sense of the word, particularly in information theory, a source is a process that generates message data that one would like to communicate, or reproduce as exactly as possible elsewhere in space or time. A source may be modelled as memoryless, ergodic, stationary, or stochastic, in order of increasing generality.

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Stationary process in the context of Random vibration

In mechanical engineering, random vibration is vibration motion which does not repeat exactly after a certain period of time. It is non-deterministic, meaning that the exact behavior at a future point in time cannot be predicted, but general trends and statistical properties can be known. The randomness is a characteristic of the excitation or input, not the mode shapes or natural frequencies. Some common examples include an automobile riding on a rough road, wave height on the water, or the load induced on an airplane wing during flight. Structural response to random vibration is usually treated using statistical or probabilistic approaches. Mathematically, random vibration is characterized as an ergodic and stationary process.

The acceleration spectral density (ASD) or power spectral density (PSD) are the usual ways to specify random vibrations. The root mean square acceleration (Grms) is the square root of the area under the ASD curve in the frequency domain. The Grms value is typically used to express the overall energy of a particular random vibration and is a statistical value used in mechanical engineering for structural design and analysis.

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Stationary process in the context of Unit root

In probability theory and statistics, a unit root is a property of certain stochastic processes (such as a random walk) that can create challenges for statistical inference in time series models. A linear stochastic process contains a unit root if 1 is a solution to its characteristic equation.

Processes with a unit root are non-stationary, because they do not necessarily exhibit a deterministic trend.

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Stationary process in the context of Trend-stationary process

In the statistical analysis of time series, a trend-stationary process is a stochastic process from which an underlying trend (function solely of time) can be removed, leaving a stationary process. The trend does not have to be linear.

Conversely, if the process requires differencing to be made stationary, then it is called difference stationary and possesses one or more unit roots. Those two concepts may sometimes be confused, but while they share many properties, they are different in many aspects. It is possible for a time series to be non-stationary, yet have no unit root and be trend-stationary. In both unit root and trend-stationary processes, the mean can be growing or decreasing over time; however, in the presence of a shock, trend-stationary processes are mean-reverting (i.e. transitory, the time series will converge again towards the growing mean, which was not affected by the shock) while unit-root processes have a permanent impact on the mean (i.e. no convergence over time).

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Stationary process in the context of Differencing

In time series analysis used in statistics and econometrics, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) models are generalizations of the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model to non-stationary series and periodic variation, respectively. All these models are fitted to time series in order to better understand it and predict future values. The purpose of these generalizations is to fit the data as well as possible. Specifically, ARMA assumes that the series is stationary, that is, its expected value is constant in time. If instead the series has a trend (but a constant variance/autocovariance), the trend is removed by "differencing", leaving a stationary series. This operation generalizes ARMA and corresponds to the "integrated" part of ARIMA. Analogously, periodic variation is removed by "seasonal differencing".

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