Radiative forcing in the context of "Climate change feedbacks"

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are the gases in an atmosphere that trap heat, raising the surface temperature of astronomical bodies such as Earth. Unlike other gases, greenhouse gases absorb the radiations that a planet emits, resulting in the greenhouse effect. The Earth is warmed by sunlight, causing its surface to radiate heat, which is then mostly absorbed by greenhouse gases. Without greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the average temperature of Earth's surface would be about −18 °C (0 °F), rather than the present average of 15 °C (59 °F). Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.27 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2015–2024. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of greenhouse gas emissions being at an all-time high of 53.6±5.2 Gt CO2e yr−1 over the last decade (2014–2023), as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling.

The five most abundant greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere, listed in decreasing order of average global mole fraction, are: water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone. Other greenhouse gases of concern include chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs and HCFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons, SF
₆, and NF
₃. Water vapor causes about half of the greenhouse effect, acting in response to other gases as a climate change feedback.

Sea ice in the Arctic region has declined in recent decades in area and volume due to climate change. It has been melting more in summer than it refreezes in winter. Global warming, caused by greenhouse gas forcing is responsible for the decline in Arctic sea ice. The decline of sea ice in the Arctic has been accelerating during the early twenty-first century, with a decline rate of 4.7% per decade (it has declined over 50% since the first satellite records). Summertime sea ice will likely cease to exist sometime during the 21st century.

The region is at its warmest in at least 4,000 years. Furthermore, the Arctic-wide melt season has lengthened at a rate of five days per decade (from 1979 to 2013), dominated by a later autumn freeze-up. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (2021) stated that Arctic sea ice area will likely drop below 1 million km in at least some Septembers before 2050. In September 2020, the US National Snow and Ice Data Center reported that the Arctic sea ice in 2020 had melted to an extent of 3.74 million km, its second-smallest extent since records began in 1979. Earth lost 28 trillion tonnes of ice between 1994 and 2017, with Arctic sea ice accounting for 7.6 trillion tonnes of this loss. The rate of ice loss has risen by 57% since the 1990s.

Earth's climate system is a complex system with five interacting components: the atmosphere (air), the hydrosphere (water), the cryosphere (ice and permafrost), the lithosphere (earth's upper rocky layer) and the biosphere (living things). Climate is the statistical characterization of the climate system. It represents the average weather, typically over a period of 30 years, and is determined by a combination of processes, such as ocean currents and wind patterns. Circulation in the atmosphere and oceans transports heat from the tropical regions to regions that receive less energy from the Sun. Solar radiation is the main driving force for this circulation. The water cycle also moves energy throughout the climate system. In addition, certain chemical elements are constantly moving between the components of the climate system. Two examples for these biochemical cycles are the carbon and nitrogen cycles.

The climate system can change due to internal variability and external forcings. These external forcings can be natural, such as variations in solar intensity and volcanic eruptions, or caused by humans. Accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, mainly being emitted by people burning fossil fuels, is causing climate change. Human activity also releases cooling aerosols, but their net effect is far less than that of greenhouse gases. Changes can be amplified by feedback processes in the different climate system components.

In April 1815, Mount Tambora, a volcano on the island of Sumbawa in present-day Indonesia (then part of the Dutch East Indies), erupted in what is now considered the most powerful volcanic eruption in recorded human history. This eruption, with a volcanic explosivity index (VEI) of 7, ejected 37–45 km (8.9–10.8 cubic miles) of dense-rock equivalent (DRE) material into the atmosphere, and was the most recent confirmed VEI-7 eruption.

Although the Mount Tambora eruption reached a violent climax on 10 April 1815, increased steaming and small phreatic eruptions occurred during the next six months to three years. The ash from the eruption column dispersed around the world and lowered global temperatures in an event sometimes known as the Year Without a Summer in 1816. This brief period of significant climate change triggered extreme weather and harvest failures in many areas around the world. Several climate forcings coincided and interacted in a systematic manner that has not been observed after any other large volcanic eruption since the early Stone Age.

Atmospheric methane is the methane present in Earth's atmosphere. The concentration of atmospheric methane is increasing due to methane emissions, and is causing climate change. Methane is one of the most potent greenhouse gases. Methane's radiative forcing (RF) of climate is direct, and it is the second largest contributor to human-caused climate forcing in the historical period. Methane is a major source of water vapour in the stratosphere through oxidation; and water vapour adds about 15% to methane's radiative forcing effect. The global warming potential (GWP) for methane is about 84 in terms of its impact over a 20-year timeframe, and 28 in terms of its impact over a 100-year timeframe.

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution (around 1750), the methane concentration in the atmosphere has increased by about 160%, and human activities almost entirely caused this increase. Since 1750 methane has contributed 3% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in terms of mass but is responsible for approximately 23% of radiative or climate forcing. By 2019, global methane concentrations had risen from 722 parts per billion (ppb) in pre-industrial times to 1866 ppb. This is an increase by a factor of 2.6 and the highest value in at least 800,000 years.

Aircraft engines produce gases, noise, and particulates from fossil fuel combustion, raising environmental concerns over both global impacts and their effects on local air quality.Jet airliners contribute to climate change by emitting carbon dioxide (CO₂), the best understood greenhouse gas, and, with less scientific understanding, nitrogen oxides, contrails and particulates.Their radiative forcing is estimated at 1.3–1.4 that of CO₂ alone, excluding induced cirrus cloud which remains poorly understood scientifically.In 2018, global commercial operations generated 2.4% of all CO₂ emissions.

Jet airliners became about 70% more fuel efficient between 1967 and 2007, and CO₂ emissions per revenue ton-kilometer (RTK) in 2018 were 47% of those in 1990. In 2018, CO₂ emissions averaged 88 grams of CO₂ per revenue passenger per km.While the aviation industry is more fuel efficient, overall emissions have risen as the volume of air travel has increased. By 2020, aviation emissions were 70% higher than in 2005 and they could grow by 300% by 2050.

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are synthetic organic compounds that contain fluorine and hydrogen atoms, and are the most common type of organofluorine compounds. Most are gases at room temperature and pressure. They are frequently used in air conditioning and as refrigerants; R-134a (1,1,1,2-tetrafluoroethane) is one of the most commonly used HFC refrigerants. In order to aid the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer, HFCs were adopted to replace the more potent chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) such as R-12, which were phased out from use by the Montreal Protocol, and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) such as R-21 which are presently being phased out. HFCs are also used in insulating foams, aerosol propellants, as solvents and for fire protection.

HFCs may not harm the ozone layer as much as the compounds they replace, but they still contribute to global warming – with some like trifluoromethane (CHF₃ or R-23) having 11,700 times the warming potential of carbon dioxide. HFC atmospheric concentrations and contribution to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly increasing – consumption rose from near zero in 1990 to 1.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2010 – causing international concern about their radiative forcing.