Vote splitting in the context of "2012 Egyptian presidential election"

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⭐ Core Definition: Vote splitting

In social choice theory and politics, a spoiler effect happens when a losing candidate affects the results of an election simply by participating. Voting rules that are not affected by spoilers are said to be spoilerproof and satisfy independence of irrelevant alternatives.

The frequency and severity of spoiler effects depends substantially on the voting method. First-past-the-post voting without winnowing or primary elections is sensitive to spoilers. And so, to a degree, are Instant-runoff or ranked-choice voting (RCV) and the two-round system (TRS). Majority-rule (or Condorcet) methods are only rarely affected by spoilers, which are limited to rare situations called cyclic ties. Rated voting systems are not subject to Arrow's theorem, allowing them to be spoilerproof so long as voters' ratings are consistent across elections.

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👉 Vote splitting in the context of 2012 Egyptian presidential election

Presidential elections were held in Egypt in 2012, with the first round on 23 and 24 May 2012 and the second on 16 and 17 June. They were the first democratic presidential elections in Egyptian history. The Muslim Brotherhood declared early 18 June 2012 that its candidate Mohamed Morsi had won, the first victory of an Islamist as head of state in the Arab world. It was the second presidential election in Egypt's history with more than one candidate, following the 2005 election, and the first presidential election after the 2011 Egyptian revolution which ousted president Hosni Mubarak, during the Arab Spring. However, Morsi's presidency was brief and short-lived. He later faced massive protests for and against his rule, only to be ousted in a military coup in July the following year.

In the first round, with a voter turnout of 46%, vote-splitting between the major moderate or pro-democracy candidates created a center squeeze, leading to the elimination of Hamdeen Sabahi and Amr Moussa (the likely majority-preferred candidates) in the first round. The elections set the stage for the divisions that were to follow, along sharia and secular lines, and those opposed to and those supporting the former political elite. Islamist candidates Morsi and Fotouh won roughly 42% of the vote, while the remaining three secular candidates won 56% of the vote. Candidates Shafik and Moussa held positions under the Mubarak regime and won 35% of the vote, while Sabahi was a prominent dissident during the Sadat and Mubarak regimes.

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Vote splitting in the context of Third party (U.S. politics)

Third party, or minor party, is a term used in the United States' two-party system for political parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties. The Electoral College for presidential elections and the plurality voting system for most other elections have established a two-party system in American politics. Third parties are most often encountered in presidential elections and while third-party candidates rarely win elections, they can have an effect on them through vote splitting and other impacts.

With few exceptions, the U.S. system has two major parties which have won, on average, 98% of all state and federal seats. According to Duverger's law two main political parties emerge in political systems with plurality voting in single-member districts. In this case, votes for minor parties can potentially be regarded as splitting votes away from the most similar major party. Third party vote splitting exceeded a president's margin of victory in three elections: 1844, 2000, and 2016.

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Vote splitting in the context of Duverger's law

In political science, Duverger's law (/ˈduːvərʒeɪ/ DOO-vər-zhay) holds that in political systems with single-member districts and the first-past-the-post voting system, as in, for example, the United States and United Kingdom, only two powerful political parties tend to control power. Citizens do not vote for small parties because they fear splitting votes away from the major party.

By contrast, in countries with proportional representation or two-round elections, such as France, Sweden, New Zealand or Spain, there is no two-party duopoly on power. There are usually more than two significant political parties. Citizens are actively encouraged to create, join and vote for new political parties if they are unhappy with current parties.

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LINKED FROM (PARENTS)
← Third party (U.S. politics) ← 2012 Egyptian presidential election ← Duverger's law ← Third party (United States)
LINKS TO (CHILDREN)
Social choice theory → Politics → Independence of irrelevant alternatives → First-past-the-post voting → Partisan primary → Instant-runoff voting → Two-round system → Condorcet method → Condorcet paradox → Rated voting → Arrow's impossibility theorem →