Survivorship bias in the context of "Good old days"

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⭐ Core Definition: Survivorship bias

Survivorship bias or survival bias is the logical error of concentrating on entities that passed a selection process while overlooking those that did not. This can lead to incorrect conclusions because of incomplete data.

Survivorship bias is a form of sampling bias that can lead to overly optimistic beliefs because multiple failures are overlooked, such as when companies that no longer exist are excluded from analyses of financial performance. It can also lead to the false belief that the successes in a group have some special property, rather than just coincidence as in correlation "proves" causality.

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👉 Survivorship bias in the context of Good old days

Good old days – commonly stylized as "good ol' days" – is a cliché in popular culture used to reference a time considered by the speaker to be better than the current era. It is a form of nostalgia that can reflect homesickness or yearning for long-gone moments.

There is a predisposition, caused by cognitive biases such as rosy retrospection, a form of survivorship bias, for people to view the past more favourably and future more negatively.

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Survivorship bias in the context of Abraham Wald

Abraham Wald (/wɔːld/; German: [valt]; Hungarian: Wald Ábrahám, Yiddish: אברהם וואַלד; (1902-10-31)31 October 1902 – (1950-12-13)13 December 1950) was a Hungarian and American mathematician and statistician who contributed to decision theory, geometry and econometrics, and founded the field of sequential analysis. One of his well-known statistical works was written during World War II on how to minimize the damage to bomber aircraft and took into account the survivorship bias in his calculations. He spent his research career at Columbia University. He was the grandson of Rabbi Moshe Shmuel Glasner.

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