Plausible deniability in the context of "Little green men (Russo-Ukrainian War)"

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⭐ Core Definition: Plausible deniability

Plausible deniability is a social tactic that allows people to deny knowledge, participation, or an active role in carrying out an activity, relaying a loaded message, etc. The deniability exists due to a lack of culpable evidence, or more commonly, from multiple plausible intrepretations of the present evidence. Plausible deniablity is prime shield of defense against accountability, and forms the basis of covert attacks that make up human social behavior.

In a chain of command, senior officials can deny knowledge or responsibility for actions committed by or on behalf of members of their organizational hierarchy. They may do so because of a lack of evidence that can confirm their participation, even if they were personally involved in or at least willfully ignorant of the actions. If illegal or otherwise disreputable and unpopular activities become public, high-ranking officials may deny any awareness of such acts to insulate themselves and shift the blame onto the agents who carried out the acts, as they are confident that their doubters will be unable to prove otherwise. The lack of evidence to the contrary ostensibly makes the denial plausible (credible), but sometimes, it makes any accusations only unactionable.

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👉 Plausible deniability in the context of Little green men (Russo-Ukrainian War)

The "little green men" (Russian: зелёные человечки, romanizedzelyonye chelovechki; Ukrainian: зелені чоловічки, romanizedzeleni cholovichky) were Russian soldiers who were masked and wore unmarked uniforms upon the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2014. They were active just before and during the Russian annexation of Crimea and carried regular weapons and equipment, but were always masked and wore distinctly unmarked green military fatigues. Russia, which had been denying any involvement in Ukraine prior to the annexation, used these little green men to give it plausible deniability on the international stage.

Between February and March 2014, these unmarked Russian soldiers occupied and blockaded the Simferopol International Airport, most of Ukraine's Crimean military bases, and the Supreme Council of Crimea. The name has also sometimes been used to refer to Russian troops during the War in Donbas; the Kremlin stated that no Russian troops were active in the region, but many little green men were operating in this region while disguised as pro-Russian separatists.

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Plausible deniability in the context of Enforced disappearance

An enforced disappearance (or forced disappearance) is the secret abduction or imprisonment of a person with the support or acquiescence of a state followed by a refusal to acknowledge the person's fate or whereabouts with the intent of placing the victim outside the protection of the law. Often, forced disappearance implies murder whereby a victim is abducted, may be illegally detained, and is often tortured during interrogation, ultimately killed, and the body disposed of secretly. The party committing the murder has plausible deniability as there is no evidence of the victim's death.

Enforced disappearance was first recognized as a human rights issue in the 1970s as a result of its use by military dictatorships in Latin America during the Dirty War. However, it has occurred all over the world.

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Plausible deniability in the context of Wagner Group

The Wagner Group (Russian: Группа Вагнера, romanizedGruppa Vagnera), officially known as PMC Wagner (ЧВК «Вагнер», ChVK "Vagner"), is a Russian state-funded private military company (PMC) that was controlled until 2023 by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a former close ally of Russia's president Vladimir Putin, and since then by Pavel Prigozhin. The Wagner Group has used infrastructure of the Russian Armed Forces. Evidence suggests that Wagner has been used as a proxy by the Russian government, allowing it to have plausible deniability for military operations abroad, and hiding the true casualties of Russia's foreign interventions.

The group emerged during the war in Donbas, where it helped Russian separatist forces in Ukraine from 2014 to 2015. Wagner played a significant role in the later full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, for which it recruited Russian prison inmates for frontline combat. By the end of 2022, its strength in Ukraine had grown from 1,000 to between 20,000 and 50,000. It was reportedly Russia's main assault force in the Battle of Bakhmut. Wagner has also supported regimes friendly with Russia, including in the civil wars in Syria, Libya, the Central African Republic, and Mali. In Africa, it has offered regimes security in exchange for the transfer of diamond- and gold-mining contracts to Russian companies. Some Wagner members, including its alleged co-founder Dmitry Utkin, have been linked to the far-right, and the unit has been accused of war crimes including murder, torture, rape and robbery of civilians, as well as torturing and killing accused deserters.

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