An optimal decision is a decision that leads to at least as good a known or expected outcome as all other available decision options. It is an important concept in decision theory. In order to compare the different decision outcomes, one commonly assigns a utility value to each of them.
If there is uncertainty as to what the outcome will be but one has knowledge about the distribution of the uncertainty, then under the von NeumannâMorgenstern axioms the optimal decision maximizes the expected utility (a probabilityâweighted average of utility over all possible outcomes of a decision). Sometimes, the equivalent problem of minimizing the expected value of loss is considered, where loss is (â1) times utility. Another equivalent problem is minimizing expected regret.