Optimal decision in the context of "Choice under uncertainty"

⭐ In the context of choice under uncertainty, optimal decision theory is considered…

Ad spacer

⭐ Core Definition: Optimal decision

An optimal decision is a decision that leads to at least as good a known or expected outcome as all other available decision options. It is an important concept in decision theory. In order to compare the different decision outcomes, one commonly assigns a utility value to each of them.

If there is uncertainty as to what the outcome will be but one has knowledge about the distribution of the uncertainty, then under the von Neumann–Morgenstern axioms the optimal decision maximizes the expected utility (a probability–weighted average of utility over all possible outcomes of a decision). Sometimes, the equivalent problem of minimizing the expected value of loss is considered, where loss is (–1) times utility. Another equivalent problem is minimizing expected regret.

↓ Menu

>>>PUT SHARE BUTTONS HERE<<<

👉 Optimal decision in the context of Choice under uncertainty

Decision theory or the theory of rational choice is a branch of probability, economics, and analytic philosophy that uses expected utility and probability to model how individuals would behave rationally under uncertainty. It differs from the cognitive and behavioral sciences in that it is mainly prescriptive and concerned with identifying optimal decisions for a rational agent, rather than describing how people actually make decisions. Despite this, the field is important to the study of real human behavior by social scientists, as it lays the foundations to mathematically model and analyze individuals in fields such as sociology, economics, criminology, cognitive science, moral philosophy and political science.

↓ Explore More Topics
In this Dossier

Optimal decision in the context of Homo economicus

The term Homo economicus, or economic man, is the portrayal of humans as agents who are consistently rational and narrowly self-interested, and who pursue their subjectively defined ends optimally. It is a wordplay on Homo sapiens, used in some economic theories and in pedagogy.

In game theory, Homo economicus is often (but not necessarily) modelled through the assumption of perfect rationality. It assumes that agents always act in a way that maximize utility as a consumer and profit as a producer, and are capable of arbitrarily complex deductions towards that end. They will always be capable of thinking through all possible outcomes and choosing that course of action which will result in the best possible result.

↑ Return to Menu

Optimal decision in the context of Regret (decision theory)

In decision theory, regret aversion (or anticipated regret) describes how the human emotional response of regret can influence decision-making under uncertainty. When individuals make choices without complete information, they often experience regret if they later discover that a different choice would have produced a better outcome. This regret can be quantified as the difference in value between the actual decision made and what would have been the optimal decision in hindsight.

Unlike traditional models that consider regret as merely a post-decision emotional response, the theory of regret aversion proposes that decision-makers actively anticipate potential future regret and incorporate this anticipation into their current decision-making process. This anticipation can lead individuals to make choices specifically designed to minimize the possibility of experiencing regret later, even if those choices are not optimal from a purely probabilistic expected-value perspective.

↑ Return to Menu

Optimal decision in the context of Utility maximization problem

Utility maximization was first developed by utilitarian philosophers Jeremy Bentham and John Stuart Mill. In microeconomics, the utility maximization problem is the problem consumers face: "How should I spend my money in order to maximize my utility?" It is a type of optimal decision problem. It consists of choosing how much of each available good or service to consume, taking into account a constraint on total spending (income), the prices of the goods and their preferences.

Utility maximization is an important concept in consumer theory as it shows how consumers decide to allocate their income. Because consumers are modelled as being rational, they seek to extract the most benefit for themselves. However, due to bounded rationality and other biases, consumers sometimes pick bundles that do not necessarily maximize their utility. The utility maximization bundle of the consumer is also not set and can change over time depending on their individual preferences of goods, price changes and increases or decreases in income.

↑ Return to Menu