Sentry Risk Table in the context of Jet Propulsion Laboratory


Sentry Risk Table in the context of Jet Propulsion Laboratory

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⭐ Core Definition: Sentry Risk Table

Sentry is an automated impact prediction system started in 2002 and operated by the Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. It continually monitors the most up-to-date asteroid catalog for possibilities of future impact with Earth over the next 100+ years. Whenever a potential impact is detected, it will be analyzed and the results immediately published by CNEOS. However, alerts do not imply certainty about future impacts, as the small amounts of optical data that can trigger an alert are not enough to conclusively identify an impact years in the future. In contrast, eliminating an entry on the risk page is a negative prediction (a prediction of where it will not be).

Scientists warn against worrying about the possibility of impact with an object based on only a few weeks of optical data that show a possible Earth encounter years from now. Sometimes, it cannot even be said for certain what side of the Sun such an object will be at the time of the listed virtual impactor date. For example, even though 2005 ED224 had a 1-in-500,000 chance of impacting Earth on 11 March 2023, its most likely position at that date was farther away than the Sun. Most objects in the Sentry Risk Table have an observation arc of less than 14 days, making their positions highly uncertain, and have not been observed for years.

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Sentry Risk Table in the context of Asteroid impact avoidance

Asteroid impact avoidance encompasses the methods by which near-Earth objects (NEO) on a potential collision course with Earth could be diverted, preventing destructive impact events. An impact by a sufficiently large asteroid or other NEOs would cause, depending on its impact location, massive tsunamis or multiple firestorms, and an impact winter caused by the sunlight-blocking effect of large quantities of pulverized rock dust and other debris placed into the stratosphere. A collision 66 million years ago between the Earth and an object approximately 10 kilometers (6 miles) wide is thought to have produced the Chicxulub crater and triggered the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event that is understood by the scientific community to have caused the extinction of all non-avian dinosaurs.

While the chances of a major collision are low in the near term, it is a near-certainty that one will happen eventually unless defensive measures are taken. Astronomical events—such as the Shoemaker-Levy 9 impacts on Jupiter and the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor, along with the growing number of near-Earth objects discovered and catalogued on the Sentry Risk Table—have drawn renewed attention to such threats. The popularity of the 2021 movie Don't Look Up helped to raise awareness of the possibility of avoiding NEOs. Awareness of the threat has grown rapidly during the past few decades, but much more needs to be accomplished before the human population can feel adequately protected from a potentially catastrophic asteroid impact.

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Sentry Risk Table in the context of Potentially hazardous object

A potentially hazardous object (PHO) is a near-Earth object – either an asteroid or a comet – with an orbit that can make close approaches to the Earth and which is large enough to cause significant regional damage in the event of impact. They are conventionally defined as having a minimum orbit intersection distance with Earth of less than 0.05 astronomical units (19.5 lunar distances) and an absolute magnitude of 22 or brighter, the latter of which roughly corresponds to a size larger than 140 meters. More than 99% of the known potentially hazardous objects are no impact threat over the next 100 years. As of February 2025, just 21 of the known potentially hazardous objects listed on the Sentry Risk Table could not be excluded as potential threats over the next hundred years. Over hundreds if not thousands of years though, the orbits of some "potentially hazardous" asteroids can evolve to live up to their namesake.

Most of these objects are potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs), and a few are comets. As of November 2022 there are 2,304 known PHAs (about 8% of the total near-Earth population), of which 153 are estimated to be larger than one kilometer in diameter (see list of largest PHAs below). Most of the discovered PHAs are Apollo asteroids (1,965) and fewer belong to the group of Aten asteroids (185).

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