Inverse probability in the context of Bayesian probability


Inverse probability in the context of Bayesian probability

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⭐ Core Definition: Inverse probability

In probability theory, inverse probability is an old term for the probability distribution of an unobserved variable.

Today, the problem of determining an unobserved variable (by whatever method) is called inferential statistics. The method of inverse probability (assigning a probability distribution to an unobserved variable) is called Bayesian probability, the distribution of data given the unobserved variable is the likelihood function (which does not by itself give a probability distribution for the parameter), and the distribution of an unobserved variable, given both data and a prior distribution, is the posterior distribution. The development of the field and terminology from "inverse probability" to "Bayesian probability" is described by Fienberg (2006).

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Inverse probability in the context of Mathematical science

The Mathematical Sciences are a group of areas of study that includes, in addition to mathematics, those academic disciplines that are primarily mathematical in nature but may not be universally considered subfields of mathematics proper.

Statistics, for example, is mathematical in its methods but grew out of bureaucratic and scientific observations, which merged with inverse probability and then grew through applications in some areas of physics, biometrics, and the social sciences to become its own separate, though closely allied, field. Theoretical astronomy, theoretical physics, theoretical and applied mechanics, continuum mechanics, mathematical chemistry, actuarial science, computer science, computational science, data science, operations research, quantitative biology, control theory, econometrics, geophysics and mathematical geosciences are likewise other fields often considered part of the mathematical sciences.

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