Economic impact of COVID-19 in the context of "2021–2023 global supply chain crisis"

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⭐ Core Definition: Economic impact of COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic caused far-reaching economic consequences including the COVID-19 recession, the second largest global recession in recent history, decreased business in the services sector during the COVID-19 lockdowns, the 2020 stock market crash (which included the largest single-week stock market decline since the 2008 financial crisis), the impact of COVID-19 on financial markets, the 2021–2023 global supply chain crisis, the 2021–2023 inflation surge, shortages related to the COVID-19 pandemic including the 2020–2023 global chip shortage, panic buying, and price gouging. The pandemic led to governments providing an unprecedented amount of stimulus, and was also a factor in the 2021–2022 global energy crisis and 2022–2023 food crises.

The pandemic affected worldwide economic activity, resulting in a 7% drop in global commercial commerce in 2020. Several demand and supply mismatches caused by the pandemic resurfaced throughout the recovery period in 2021 and 2022 and were spread internationally through trade. During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, businesses lost 25% of their revenue and 11% of their workforce, with contact-intensive sectors and SMEs being particularly heavily impacted. However, considerable policy assistance helped to avert large-scale bankruptcies, with just 4% of enterprises declaring for insolvency or permanently shutting at the time of the COVID-19 wave. According to a 2021 global modeling study, the travel and tourism sector alone could contribute to a worldwide GDP loss of up to US$12.8 trillion if the pandemic extended through the end of 2020. The study further predicted over 500 million global job losses in related industries, highlighting tourism as one of the most severely impacted sectors.

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Economic impact of COVID-19 in the context of 2020 stock market crash

On 20 February 2020, stock markets across the world suddenly crashed after growing instability due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The crash ended on 7 April 2020.

Beginning on 13 May 2019, the yield curve on U.S. Treasury securities inverted, and remained so until 11 October 2019, when it reverted to normal. Through 2019, while some economists (including Campbell Harvey and former New York Federal Reserve economist Arturo Estrella), argued that a recession in the following year was likely, other economists (including the managing director of Wells Fargo Securities Michael Schumacher and San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary C. Daly) argued that inverted yield curves may no longer be a reliable recession predictor. The yield curve on U.S. Treasuries would not invert again until 30 January 2020 when the World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 outbreak to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, four weeks after local health commission officials in Wuhan, China announced the first 27 COVID-19 cases as a viral pneumonia strain outbreak on 1 January.

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