Credible intervals in the context of Interval (statistics)


Credible intervals in the context of Interval (statistics)

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⭐ Core Definition: Credible intervals

In Bayesian statistics, a credible interval is an interval used to characterize a probability distribution. It is defined such that an unobserved parameter value has a particular probability to fall within it. For example, in an experiment that determines the distribution of possible values of the parameter , if the probability that lies between 35 and 45 is , then is a 95% credible interval.

Credible intervals are typically used to characterize posterior probability distributions or predictive probability distributions. Their generalization to disconnected or multivariate sets is called credible set or credible region.

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Credible intervals in the context of Point estimation

In statistics, point estimation involves the use of sample data to calculate a single value (known as a point estimate since it identifies a point in some parameter space) which is to serve as a "best guess" or "best estimate" of an unknown population parameter (for example, the population mean). More formally, it is the application of a point estimator to the data to obtain a point estimate.

Point estimation can be contrasted with interval estimation: such interval estimates are typically either confidence intervals, in the case of frequentist inference, or credible intervals, in the case of Bayesian inference. More generally, a point estimator can be contrasted with a set estimator. Examples are given by confidence sets or credible sets. A point estimator can also be contrasted with a distribution estimator. Examples are given by confidence distributions, randomized estimators, and Bayesian posteriors.

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